Last weekend saw some 1,500 members of Sinn Féin gather in Belfast for the party’s Ard Fheis. Delegates heard from party leader Mary Lou McDonald and First Minister and deputy leader Michelle O'Neill, with calls for a mini-budget in response to the energy crisis, and for government to take concrete steps towards a referendum on Irish Unity among the key points of discussion.
While the lead up to the gathering saw much speculation on the future of McDonald's leadership, there were no visible signs of member discontent at the Ard Fheis. McDonald, flanked by her would-be successors, firmly rejected the media commentary, insisting that she retains the support of members and will lead the party into the next general election.
Perhaps the members queuing for photos with the party leader is indeed a sign that all is well – or perhaps any challengers are waiting to see how the votes are cast in the upcoming bye-elections.
Voters will head to the polls in both Galway-West and Dublin Central on May 22nd in the first bye-elections of this government’s tenure. As the lead opposition party, and with Sinn Féin ahead in national polls, both are contests the Party would ordinarily expect to be well-placed to win, particularly given the Coalition's recent difficulties handling the fuel protests. However, party figures have privately acknowledged that neither seat is secure given the competitive fields in both constituencies.
Dublin Central carries additional weight as McDonald's home constituency, where McDonald’s preferred candidate missed out on the nomination to local councillor Janice Boylan. A constituency with a history of colourful characters, and a strong centre-left vote, there’s an expectation on the leader to secure a strong vote for her former running mate, topping the poll, if not taking the seat.
A strong showing should put to bed any lingering questions around leadership for now – anything less, however, may sharpen the focus on succession planning for the government in waiting.
For now, the party of a United Ireland is projecting unity – but ballot boxes on May 22nd will reveal whether this holds, or if the long-disciplined party starts to show further cracks.
Political Update
Government announces fuel support schemes in response to the fuel prices crisis
The Government has announced two fuel support schemes for road transport firms and farmers worth a combined €220 million in response to the fuel prices crisis. Under the scheme, 120,000 farmers and 1,500 agricultural contractors should receive financial aid by the end of June. Applications for the support scheme will be open from next week, and backdated to March 1st, when the effects of conflict in Iran began to impact energy costs in Ireland.
Opposition parties have been vocally critical of the support package, with Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald criticising the Government of doing little to ease the cost of living, and calling for an emergency budget to support families under pressure from rising energy costs.
Ministers rejected the criticism, saying efforts to reduce pressures on the agricultural sector would help bring food to supermarkets more quickly and at lower cost, with the aim of easing overall household expenses.
Recommendations on fuel saving have also been issued, with the public being advised to drive slower, switch to walking and cycling for shorter journeys, and remove heavy items from car boots and roofs, in order to maximise energy saving.
Economic Update
Bank of Ireland reports that rising energy prices will not lead to a recession
Bank of Ireland remains confident that rising energy prices triggered by the conflict in Iran will not push the economy into recession, despite cutting its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.6%. The Bank's quarterly report points to Ireland's resilience through the pandemic and the post-Ukraine energy shock as grounds for its outlook, and notes that even oil prices reaching €100 would not be sufficient to tip the country into recession. Inflation is expected to rise to 3.3% this year, up from 2.2% in 2025, while the labour market is forecast to remain robust with employment growth of 1.8%.
On housing, the Bank projects 37,500 completions in 2026, a marginal increase on last year's 36,000 but still well short of the 50,000 Government target. House prices are expected to rise by 4% over the year, reflecting continued demand pressure against constrained supply. However, new figures from the Central Statistics Office point to some progress on the supply side, with a 33% rise in completions in Q1 2026 compared with the same period last year.
Sustainability Update
Europe is the fastest warming continent on Earth
The European State of the Climate Report for 2025 has found that Europe is the fastest warming continent on Earth, with temperatures increasing at over twice the rate of the global average. The report reveals that at least 95% of Europe experienced above-average annual temperatures in 2025. Annual sea surface temperature for the European region was the highest on record, and 86% of the region experienced marine heatwaves. Furthermore, wildfires burnt around 1,034,550 hectares across Europe, hitting yet another record of climate destruction.
On a more positive note, the report shows that Europe continues to shift towards renewable energy, with renewables supplying 46.4% of electricity in 2025. Solar power also reached a record share of 12.5%, while fossil fuels fell to 27.5%, continuing their gradual decline. Experts warned that a rapid further acceleration of the energy transition is needed as Europe faces the impacts of accelerated climate change.
Around the world
Aung San Suu Kyi moved to house arrest
In Myanmar, former leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been moved to house arrest after being held in detention since the 2021 military coup, when Suu Kyi’s government was overthrown, ending a decade of democracy in the country.
The former Nobel prize winner detained a range of charges, including corruption. She has denied all allegations in a series of secret trials, which human rights groups have classed as illegitimate.
In New York, United Nations spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters the move was "a meaningful step towards conditions conducive to a credible political process". However, human rights commentators have suggested the move is a tactical attempt by the military regime to create a veneer of reform, and legitimacy from the international community.